]]> http://keithkirchner.com/breckenridge-homes-sold-march-2011/feed/ http://keithkirchner.com/breckenridge-condos-sold-march-201/ http://keithkirchner.com/breckenridge-condos-sold-march-201/#comments Sat, 23 Apr 2011 19:59:41 +0000 keith Condos Sold in Breckenirgde COMarch 2011 http://keithkirchner.com/?p=2126

]]> http://keithkirchner.com/breckenridge-condos-sold-march-201/feed/ http://keithkirchner.com/breckenridge-3-bedroom-condo-for-sale-lockoff/ http://keithkirchner.com/breckenridge-3-bedroom-condo-for-sale-lockoff/#comments Sun, 10 Apr 2011 22:04:48 +0000 keith breckenridge condo for salebreckenridge real estate for saleriver mountain lodge condo for saleski in condo for salesummit county condo for sale http://keithkirchner.com/?p=2112 3 Bedroom Lockoff Condo for Sale in Breckenridge for Sale.

What an opportunity for a unique lockoff condo rental unit in Breckenridge. This ski in, 3 bedroom condo in Breckenridge is located at the bottom of the 4 O’clock ski run and on the Blue River in town. Forget your parking woes, and just walk anywhere in town, or take the shuttle bus with a stop out the front door. The condo is a proven rental producer in a building with almost every amenity possible: front desk & bar, hot tubs, pool, conference room, underground parking and an unbeatable location.

Still, there has been notable activity in Breckenridge and Summit County this ski season. Many patterns I’ve commented on previously remain in place for the duration of the ski season. For an ultra short update, the real estate market is slowly improving, but still not without its challenges for local home sellers. Year to date number of sales in Summit County 2011 show that Jan. was up 61% over last January. February was up 35% over last February; and total Summit County sales increased an inspiring 47% overall. (March stats totaled soon) Still many properties have been listed for a year or more. The average list to sales price ratio changes with the amount of time each property lasts. Average List/Sold price ratio for a property listed for 30-60 days in 2011 is 94.7%. The longer the property lasts, the lower the sales price seems to have been. See current 2011 graph of List/Sold ratio.

The top challenge that a Breckenridge buyer has been facing for 2 years now remains financing. It is extremely difficult to get land and construction loans these days, and most lenders require 20% down
on condos and 2nd home properties. It’s safer banking, but limits a buyers’ ability in Summit County and across the nation. The easy money days are apparently over. Given that the vast majority of real estate in Breckenridge and Summit County are both condos and 2nd homes, we feel the effect of these banking changes more than other markets. I highly recommend to all buyers in the Breckenridge and Summit County real estate market to get a local lender. Most out of town lenders can’t get a loan for a condo in Breckenridge and virtually all out of state lenders fail to get funding for a condo buyer here. Buyers! Stay local with lenders! Additionally, most sellers and seller’s agents know how attractive cash is with the existing lending challenges. If you have the cash to make your purchase, now more than

ever, your buying power can be used to fetch a lower price on the house.  The graph above shows a surprisingly low figure for 2010 Summit County sales showing that 69% of last year’s purchase were with a loan and 29% were with cash.  It usually shows that cash deals are more like 35%-40%, an interest change.

There is a double-edged sword that exists in our current real estate buyer’s market. Perhaps the second biggest hurdle in today’s Summit County buyer’s market is the reputation of the buyer market itself. Buyers around the country know real estate is on sale right now and even the mildly savvy buyers out there have the goal of getting the deal of the century. A frustrating new normalcy of my business in the last year or two are buyers presenting offers for 60%-70% of list price. Local Realtor talk around the barstool confirms that this is not an uncommon occurrence with the real estate professionals here in Breckenridge. In general, Summit County and Breckenridge has seen price reductions of 20%- 30% off peak prices of 2008, depending on location. Property values now hover roughly around 2006 prices. Different than other parts of the country, many sellers here in Breckenridge have the financial freedom to laugh at low offers for their second home. Then again, not all of them can, so sometimes you just have to throw out an offer and see if it sticks. The lesson here is simple, there is a price a buyer wants to pay, and a price a seller wants to receive. The professional insights that your local Realtor can provide is what price will actually provide these parties with a successful agreement. Professional knowledge of your real estate broker is based on quantitative understanding of market value through research, as well as the immeasurable, qualitative sentiment of the market they deal with every day as a professional.

Still not all sellers have a strong finances, and the occasional deal of the month occurs. There are a few micro markets in Breckenridge and Summit County with sellers growing anxious for an offer. Once a laughable request in Summit, over the last two years there have been a small but increasing number of REO (bank owned) sales in the last two years (we might have seen 15-20 REO properties sold in 2010). In my experience, bank owned real estate has proven to offer the best discounts for buyers in Breckenridge and Summit County. They have been more abundant in the Dillon real estate market over other Summit County towns. In any town, they tend to be more in the $300-$500K price range and then again from $1 - $1.3 million. A few of the REO sales made it to a great, yet still uncommon system in Summit County, through an auction service. I saw at least 4 Summit County properties go to an auction service last year, and one this year. They were about the only sales I know of that actually did sell at a 30%-40% discount.

Yes indeed it is a buyer’s market in Summit County. Breckenridge, Frisco and most of Summit County have weathered the storm well. Ski in ski out real estate holds the strongest. There are already many condos in town from $450-$700 for sale in Breckenridge. This is also the most common sale type in Breckenridge, but I could see this micro market being very soft this summer during the summer selloff. Frisco is actually a strong force to recon with as always. Oh Frisco, why can’t the whole nation follow your example? Dillon seems to be holding a strong inventory as well as the core of Silverthorne, but Wildernest has not seen as much activity as Silverthorne’s core. Keystone and Copper Mountain have had a rough go for sales this ski season and continue to lag behind the rest of Summit County in activity, but you couldn’t tell that from their parking lots on the powder days we had at the end of March. Studios and 1 bedroom condos in Keystone are overstocked and on sale! Consistently, the low end of the market in Breckenridge and nearly every Summit County town seem to be in the least demand (properties from $200K-$300K). Homes for sale around Breckenridge from $800-$1.2 million have thinned out quite a bit. We may have seen the weakest point pass for these homes, but the quality of current selection is actually below expectations. Most are over priced. Few are turn-key. Overall, there seems to be some sort of consistency that the market is improving, or at least stabilizing. Inventory and demand show signs of returning to normal, but were not there yet. I am impressed at the health of today’s market after the last two years.

We have reached an inflection point in the market is seems, and given the standard season changes we are about to take on, short term is hard to predict. Summer is always the busy buying and selling season. Essentially, starting this month, this summer season will be the next big indicator of change in market persona. Things look promising at a local level. We just have to see how the national situation will play out here in Breckenridge.  That’s a wild card that is not easy to predict.

Slope side pool

This Copper condo offers all you could ask for - ski in / ski out access, slope side hot tub, under ground parking and an on-site bar and restaurant. All these amenities make for convenience for you or your rental guest. A location like this will always be in high demand with any skier looking for a getaway.

Regarding High End Condos and smaller condo condos for sale in Breckenridge, there have been some small but noticeable shifts in the last few months.  I recently told a client the following with regards to the Main Street Station Condo in downtown Breckenridge, Colorado.

“I have noticed (and many other of my associated) an increase in general interest and an increase of business in the last 3-5 months.  There is actually not much for sale these days in many categories.  High-end, smaller condos has not yet followed that trend yet, but there has been some movement as MSS has gone from 18 to 14 listings in the last year.  I have a feeling this summer will offer a significant change of pace from what we’ve seen recently.  I’m glad its been renting more.  That also seems to be a trend for this year for most every rental property.  The classic problem with that is difficulty in showing the condo to potential buyers while rented.”

Main Street Station is one of a few classic high-end rental condo complexes in Breckenridge.  Its overall location and presence makes it one of the best renters in town.  It also offers a classic scenario for larger developments.  Listings can often stack up in these condo buildings more significantly when there are 100+ condos in the complex.  Also, frequent rentals make it challenging to show the condo to buyers.  Combine these situations with tough lending conditions and a bad economy, and condo buildings like get a significant inventory increase forcing serious competition amongst owners to have the most attractive price.

Smaller complexes have to compete in the overall real estate market and deal with same challenging economy, but sellers are competing with each other less.  This has been a trend in the Breckenridge real estate market during both of the last buyer’s markets.  (The last one was during the market period after Sept. 11, 2001).

Either way, what seems to be remaining right now in the Breckenridge real estate market are the properties that have not reduced their prices much and have remained on the market for 6-18 months or more.  Competition is abundantly evident in Breckenridge when a good deal pops up.  Most of those deals were snatched up last year.  Today, we seem to have overpriced scraps and fixer uppers.  There is very little on the market that is in great condition and at a nice price.

Keith Kirchner

Breckenridge Real Estate Market News

Lot #2  –  3 bedroom / 2bathroom Remodeled Home For Sale  $138,900

Canon City Home For Sale

Completely remodeled home with countless upgrades and changes.  Completely new bathroom, new kitchen, new layout, new carpet, new roof!, new electric box and wiring, new tile, and so much more.

House sits on 0.455 acres and has plenty of space for a detached garage with ground to spare.  Easy access from Greydene Avenue on the North side of Highway 50 by Faricy Ford.  Option to purchase 1/2 share of water on Canon City’s valuable Hydrolic Ditch is available.  Property is zoned R2 and has numerous mature trees on site.  What a great opportunity to buy a quiet home in Canon City!

LOT #1 - $34,900

Lot 1 - 1/4 Acre - Canon City real estate

1/4 acre lot for sale in Canon City, Colorado.  Land is zoned R2 (Residential Duplex).  Owner may build a single family home or a duplex.  Property dimensions at nearly rectangular with 67 feet along the street frontage and 150 deep deep.  Existing garage structure has no utilities attached and probably should be demolished.  Many mature shade trees as well as a peach, apple and plum tree exist on property.  This is a rare opportunity to build in Canon City!

Breckenridge Ski Resort - Peak 6 Article

For the last two years, Summit County and Breckenridge real estate markets were, well, declining to say the least. Yet, as with all markets and statistics, changes are inevitable, occasionally predictable. For the last 4 or 5 months, I’ve been telling my clients there have been significant signs of increasing business in real estate market in Breckenridge, Frisco, Dillon, almost every town in Summit County. The fog in my crystal ball is clearing a little and for the fist time in 2 years, I finally get to say ‘I told you so’.

However, the cloud looming in the crystal ball is much larger and out of the hands of this little community. It’s the prevailing national economic and banking conditions that keep real estate in Breckenridge & Summit quiet for now. So far, national confidence and spending has increased significantly in the last few months. Retail sales in 2010 were up, the DOW is up, property rental reservations in Breckenridge are up, Summit County sales are up, but we’re not out of the big financial situation yet. 2011 will surely continue to show economic challenge for Colorado and the U.S., but that’s not my expertise. What I can say is that Summit County and Breckenridge real estate appears to be making a very positive change.

My loose rule of thumb for today’s value is that real estate in Breckenridge and throughout Summit County is selling at 2007 prices, sometimes 2006. That doesn’t sound great to many Breckenridge and Summit County homeowners (including myself), but considering real estate here had 15%-20% appreciation each year in 2004-2008, its not too terrible unless you bought in 2007 or 2008. I’m just glad I don’t have to report on Florida or Detroit.

Near-term forecast for Summit County Real Estate
I expect most local real estate values to stay flat this year for most areas. We should see a higher list to sale price ratio in Frisco with a potential rise in prices there. We’ll have our typical summer selling season and the market will be flooded again. The cheap ones will sell fast keeping overall prices down. However, with increasing buyer demand comes faster turnover time on the market. There is a possibility that the real estate market might not get overstocked this summer, but it is not likely to be impressive. I’d expect a noticeable change in mentality this year and an upward price movement perhaps next fall after the sell off. We’ll see.

Notable statistics for the Summit County real estate market for 2010:
Courtesy of Land Title Guarantee Company

Number of residential real estate transactions - 1319 - up 6%
Dollar Volume Spent - $698,439,815 - up 2%
Average Summit County Single Family Home Price - Down 15% to $771,000
Average Summit County Multi Family Sale Price - Up 6.7% to $425,000
Average Days on Market for all 2010 residential listings - 231 (from Summit County MLS)

Summit County Real Estate Inventory - Jan 20, 2011:
Info from Summit County MLS

Breckenridge/Blue River - 576
Keystone - 240
Frisco - 90
Dillon/Summit Cove - 105
Silverthorne & North - 183
Copper Mountain - 120
Summit County Totals - 1314

Summit County Inventory
- down 10% since January 2010 (1461 listings)
- down 19% since April 2010 (1615 listings)
- down 20% since May 2010 (1641 listings)
- down 36% since July 2010 (2104 listings - a record high as far as I know)
- down 10% since Dec. 2010 (1460 listing)
- Average healthy inventory is 1000-1100 listings.
- Inventory in 2007 was 500-700 listings.

Decreasing property inventory is a good indicator that the market is strengthening. Frisco appears to have made a full recovery already, but Frisco is traditionally a stellar market. If 2011 sells off like last year, Summit County will be poised for a seller’s market by Christmas. The main wildcard factors to where the real estate market will head this year lies in: 1. Whether there are any unusual changes to our standard summer listing season (inflow vs. outflow) & 2. the U.S. economy continuing to improve. If life continues on the track it’s on today, Summit County real estate will tighten up considerably in 2011.

Strongest Summit County real estate markets:
- Ski in ski out property as always (but weakening at $900K)
- Distressed properties
- Frisco is back! Frisco now has as exactly much for sale as the market peak of 2007.

Weakest Summit County real estate markets:
- Copper Mountain
- golf course real estate
- new construction in Breckenridge & high-end condos $1-$2 million
- Dillon & Silverthorne from $300K-$400K
- most any condo for sale from $200-$300
- anything with “Village” in its name (seriously)
- & Dillon Valley Condos

Big Sellers in 2010:
- Single Family Homes from $1-$1.5 cleared out considerably last year!
- Single Family Homes in downtown Breckenridge are in low supply
- & Deals Deals Deals. If its not hugely reduced, it’s probably not moving.

Average Residential Time on Market - 9 months.
Average Condo Sale Price is up 19% from 2009 totals to $397,000.
Average SFH Sale Price is down 2.8% from 2009 totals to $740,000
Number of Summit County Transactions - up 10% month-to-date over 2009.
Dollar Volume Spent in Summit County- up 10% month-to-date over 2009
Summit County Inventory:

- equal to January 2010 (1461 listings)
- down 10% since April 2010 (1615 listings)
- down 11% since May 2010 (1641 listings)
- down 30% since July 2010 (2104 listings - a record as far as I know)
- Average healthy inventory would be 1000-1100 listings.
- Inventory in 2007 was 500-700 listings.

	Active Listings	Inventory Change Since July	Pending	Sold in 2010
Breckenridge & Blue River	654	reduced 28.4%	59	370
Keystone	262	reduced 16.3%	13	143
Frisco	107	reduced 40.8%	16	109
Dillon &  Summit Cove	118	reduced 40.7%	15	95
Silverthorne & North	198	reduced 42%	24	177
Copper Mt.	121	reduced by 6.2%	4	28
Summit County Totals	1460	reduced 30.6%	131	992

Summit County month to month sales comparisons

Word on the street is that the Denver real estate market is gaining momentum, still plagued with low-priced foreclosure sales; sales are down still but increasing. As the main supplier of skiers and real estate investors in Breckenridge, this is a good sign for the market in Breckenridge. Investors from Denver and the Front Range own almost half of the real estate in Summit County, so as Denver rebounds, Summit County and Breckenridge will follow suit just like it did with the down turn (I predict even faster than Denver.)

National consumer confidence is slowly returning despite looming inflation and rising unemployment. The Dow is above 11,000. Summit County vacation rental reservations are up 20%-40% from last year. Even the Black Friday retail sales were up nation wide. The greater national economic situation is what has been holding back the Breckenridge and Summit County real estate market, not local economic despair. There seems to be no shortage of people perusing the streets and shops of Main Street Breckenridge this season. Talk of the town is that there is a noticeable increase in local activity this year in Breckenridge.

As a second home market, we feel the effects second to the cities where people live. As a luxury real estate market, we see more buyers and owners with deeper pockets here. This typically makes for less dramatic price swings in market trends. Prices dropped throughout Summit County, but they didn’t fall like Las Vegas or Florida. I feel the secret to why Summit will rebound faster than thousands of other communities in the U.S… skiing, fishing, and camping are relatively cheap activities. Only one hour from Denver and the airport, and with more skier visit that anywhere in the world, there is no shortage of demand in Breckenridge and Summit County. People want to be here. People want to avoid the traffic back to Denver. People want to work from home… in their condo by the slopes. People want to escape the heat. People want to be out of the city. People want to drive 12 hours to be in the mountains. If you build it, they will come. And they do… in beautiful Breckenridge, Colorado.

For the last 2 years, my crystal ball has been a little cloudy. It still is, but this is a clear sign of improvement. Without sounding like an overly optimistic and pushy Realtor, my forecast for 2011 real estate sales in Summit County is promising. I don’t think we have weathered the full storm yet, but I think the eye has passed. I think we just hear the ‘tink’ at the bottom of the cup. I call for flat values for the next year with potential for a gentle upswing by late summer 2011. Yea that’s speculative, but I used to be right all the time. Only time will tell. Check out the latest stats here.